This week’s chart comes from a Gartner survey of 2,002 CIOs and other technology leaders, presented at the Gartner IT Symposium in Orlando and reported by The Decoder on October 22. The headline number is stark: only 13 percent of respondents say AI has delivered major or transformative returns. Yet the same survey says most CEOs plan to spend more on technology anyway. Putting the figures side by side shows a gap between investment and proof, and it also shows how easy it is to misread a survey chart.

The chart

Each block (█) below is roughly 5 percentage points. Bars use a zero baseline, and the figures are those reported from the survey.

Share of respondents (Gartner survey, n = 2,002 technology leaders)

CEOs planning to increase technology spending
75%  ███████████████

CIOs tasked with delivering cost savings through AI
58%  ████████████

CIOs expecting AI to raise total operating cost of their tech stack
51%  ██████████

CEOs struggling to show AI-driven financial returns to stakeholders
44%  █████████

Respondents reporting major or transformative returns from AI
13%  ███

One caution on the chart: the bars do not all describe the same group. The 13 percent figure refers to survey respondents, the 58 and 51 percent figures refer to CIOs, and the 75 and 44 percent figures refer to CEOs. We put them in one view to show the tension, not to suggest a single population moved in sequence.

What the numbers say

Returns are rare. Thirteen percent is the number that matters most, because it asks about outcomes rather than activity. The survey does not say that the other 87 percent see no benefit, only that they do not report major or transformative returns. Some may see modest gains, some may be too early to measure.

Cost savings are the brief, and costs may rise. A majority of CIOs, 58 percent, are told to use AI to cut costs, yet 51 percent expect AI to raise the total operating cost of their tech stack. Those two figures pull in opposite directions. Model usage, extra cloud capacity, security reviews and integration work can all push spending up before any savings show.

Executives still lean in. Despite uncertain returns, 75 percent of CEOs plan to increase technology spending, according to Gartner. Forty-four percent of CEOs say they struggle to demonstrate AI-driven financial returns to stakeholders.

How Gartner’s analyst reads it

Gartner analyst Alicia Mullery describes a widening gap between the “innovation race” that vendors are running and the “outcomes race” that companies need to win. According to The Decoder’s summary, the companies that succeed decide early which projects are worth pursuing and which to shut down, including projects already in production, and they plan proactively for how AI agents will reshape job roles.

Not everyone treats the low figure as a verdict. Bloomberg CEO Vlad Kliatchko says it is too early to measure the economic payoff of AI, and that his company invests because it believes this is the right moment.

Why a survey chart can mislead

Before sharing a chart like this, check four things:

  1. Who answered? Technology leaders at large organizations may not represent small companies or specific departments.
  2. What exactly was asked? “Major or transformative returns” is a high bar. A different wording, such as “any measurable benefit,” would produce a bigger number.
  3. When was it measured? Many projects started recently; returns often lag spending.
  4. Self-reported or audited? Survey answers are opinions about results, not financial statements.

We have not seen the full Gartner report, only the figures summarized by The Decoder, which draws on the Wall Street Journal and Gartner. Treat details beyond those numbers as unverified.

What a company can do with this

The survey points toward a few habits that do not require a big budget. Start from a business outcome, such as hours saved on a named process, not from a tool. Set a stop rule for each project so weak ones end. Track the full cost, including review time. And report outcomes in the same units the finance team uses. Our guides on planning enterprise AI spend and a framework for enterprise AI rollout go deeper.

What to watch next

  • The full Gartner report and the exact wording of the return question.
  • Whether other surveys, such as those from consulting firms, show a similar share of high-return companies.
  • Company disclosures that quantify AI savings in earnings reports.
  • Whether the share of CEOs planning higher technology spending holds as budgets are set.
  • Evidence on how AI agents change job roles, which Gartner says companies should plan for.

Key takeaways

  • Gartner’s survey of 2,002 technology leaders found 13% report major or transformative AI returns.
  • 58% of CIOs are asked to cut costs with AI, while 51% expect AI to raise their tech stack’s operating cost.
  • 44% of CEOs struggle to show AI-driven financial returns, yet 75% plan to increase technology spending.
  • Gartner advises choosing early which projects to pursue or stop, and planning for agents’ effect on roles.
  • Check the sample, wording and timing before drawing conclusions from a survey chart.

Frequently asked questions

Does the 13% figure mean AI does not work?

No. It means 13% of respondents report major or transformative returns. Many others may see smaller benefits or may be too early to measure results.

Where do the numbers come from?

From a Gartner survey of 2,002 CIOs and other technology leaders presented at the Gartner IT Symposium in Orlando, as reported by The Decoder citing the Wall Street Journal and Gartner.

Why are the bars not from the same group?

The survey asked different questions of different groups, such as CIOs and CEOs. We show them together to compare, but they should not be read as one population.